**Record El Niño Threatens to Unleash Floods Across East Africa and Asia**
A rapidly intensifying El Niño weather pattern is raising alarms across East Africa and Asia, with predictions of severe flooding, disease outbreaks, and drought conditions. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has highlighted the vulnerability of several countries, including Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, which are already grappling with ongoing humanitarian crises.
The US Climate Prediction Center announced on July 9 that the current El Niño phenomenon is strengthening at an unprecedented rate, with an 81 percent chance of becoming one of the most powerful events since 1950. The peak of this weather pattern is expected between October and December. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that El Niño conditions have already developed and are forecasted to intensify rapidly in the coming months.
Bob Kitchen, a senior official for emergencies at the IRC, emphasized the precarious situation, stating, “We’re watching several emergencies converge at once, and the places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs.” Communities in the path of El Niño are already facing exhaustion due to drought, conflict, and diminishing aid resources, leaving them with little capacity to cope with additional challenges.
El Niño is characterized by a natural shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures that occurs every two to seven years. This phenomenon disrupts normal trade winds and leads to significant changes in weather patterns worldwide. In East Africa, El Niño typically results in a drier midyear followed by increased rainfall from October to December. This year, the situation is expected to be exacerbated by a related warming pattern in the Indian Ocean, which could lead to more intense weather events.
In Somalia, heavy rains have already caused significant flooding in the capital, Mogadishu, with the potential for further inundation later this year. The US-funded early warning body, FEWS NET, has assessed a credible risk of famine in southern regions if flooding conditions mirror those experienced during previous El Niño events in 1997 and 2023, which resulted in submerged farmland and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.
Kenya's weather service has reported an 80-82 percent likelihood that El Niño will persist throughout the year. In response, the country has activated its national disaster plan in anticipation of heavier rains between October and December, following a drier midyear period.
Bangladesh has also been affected, with at least 15 Rohingya refugees reported dead and over 10,000 displaced due to landslides and flooding in the Cox’s Bazar camps since early July. Meanwhile, Pakistan is facing a complex situation, with forecasts indicating below-average rainfall in many areas, while northern mountainous regions remain at risk of sudden glacier-melt floods.
The World Bank has warned that if El Niño fully develops, rice yields in the hardest-hit regions of South Asia and East Africa could decline by 20 to 50 percent. This decline poses a significant threat to food security for millions of people who rely on rice as a staple food source. The situation is further complicated by rising food prices and affordability issues, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the escalating conflict involving Iran and its implications for global energy and fertilizer supplies.
In light of these impending challenges, humanitarian organizations, including the IRC, are urging donors to provide funding for preventive measures rather than waiting for disasters to unfold. The call for proactive support underscores the urgent need to bolster resilience in communities that are already vulnerable and facing multiple crises.
As the situation develops, the focus remains on monitoring the El Niño phenomenon and its potential impacts on these regions, with the hope that timely interventions can mitigate the worst effects of this powerful weather pattern.