**Title: Europe May Accelerate Space Launches to Meet Satellite Demand**
The European Space Agency (ESA) is contemplating an increase in the launch frequency of its Ariane 6 and Vega-C rockets in response to a projected surge in satellite demand. ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher indicated that a decision on this matter would need to be made soon, especially if forecasts predicting a peak in demand around 2030 turn out to be accurate.
At a recent event organized by the AJPAE aerospace media association, Aschbacher highlighted the growing interest in satellite launches, driven not only by ESA’s own missions but also by commercial entities such as Amazon, which has already commissioned 18 launches. He noted that Arianespace, the operator of the Ariane rocket family, anticipates conducting nine to ten launches of the Ariane 6 rockets annually starting in 2027. However, Aschbacher expressed concerns that the current planned capacity may not be sufficient to meet the expected demand.
“Of course the question is, can we satisfy all these launches? That’s exactly the assessment we are doing right now,” Aschbacher stated, emphasizing the urgency of the situation. He acknowledged that while ESA is making progress in its evaluations, timely decisions are crucial to build the necessary launch capacities ahead of the anticipated demand in 2030.
Arianespace, which operates under the Airbus-Safran joint venture ArianeGroup, has not commented on the matter ahead of a scheduled news briefing.
In addition to addressing launch capacities, ESA is also exploring the feasibility of launching humans into space using European rockets, rather than relying on U.S. vehicles. This initiative, which could potentially increase ESA’s budget by approximately 10%, is still in the early stages and would require political backing. The topic is set to be discussed at an upcoming space summit hosted by France.
Aschbacher also addressed the ongoing scrutiny surrounding a major merger in the satellite manufacturing sector. Last year, Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo announced plans to consolidate their satellite manufacturing operations into a new entity, referred to as “Project Bromo.” This merger is currently awaiting antitrust approval, and while ESA is not directly involved in the negotiations, it plays a significant role in the European satellite landscape, accounting for about 60% of public-sector spending in this area.
While Aschbacher refrained from expressing a definitive stance on the merger, he indicated that ESA is prepared to leverage its influence to maintain competition within the satellite market. He stated, “What I’m saying is that ESA can certainly … use the tool sets that we have, meaning industrial policy, to ensure that the European space ecosystem will continue to flourish.” This could involve measures aimed at protecting the sector's supply chain, which is a critical concern for companies outside the proposed merger.
Germany's OHB, a potential competitor to the newly formed entity, has raised alarms that the merger could undermine its supply chain. In contrast, Airbus and its partners argue that competition should be evaluated on a global scale, particularly in light of the need to compete with commercial ventures like Elon Musk’s Starlink.
As Europe navigates the complexities of increasing satellite demand and potential industry consolidation, the decisions made by ESA and its partners in the coming years will be pivotal in shaping the future of the continent's space capabilities.